← Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
Wind Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
decks
3
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
15-8-2
overall winrate
64.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.5%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
50.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1372
· median 1366
· range 1320–1431
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1379
1685
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 10.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -2.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.0% | -7.6 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.0% | +15.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.3% | +6.0 |
| Water Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
